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Freightos: Weekly Ocean Freight Index Update

Ocean freight rates have risen at an accelerated pace as shipment volumes increase in anticipation of potential global disruptions. Contrary to initial expectations of a 10% drop in November’s shipment volumes compared to October, projections now forecast a visible increase in shipments for the month.

The Freightos Baltic Index, dated 13 November 29, reported the following week-on-week changes in booking rates:

Key takeaways: 

The US National Retail Federation (NRF) has raised its forecast for ocean import volumes through the end of the year, signalling a significant uptick in activity at US ports. According to the updated outlook, the NRF now anticipates a 13% year-over-year increase in November import volumes, followed by a 6% rise in December. This shift reflects efforts by shippers to frontload imports in anticipation of potential disruptions tied to upcoming labour negotiations at East Coast and Gulf ports, as well as expected tariff hikes in 2025.

However, this trend does not appear to extend to the transatlantic route, where no noticeable frontloading activity has been detected.

Meanwhile, persistent operational disruptions at Canadian ports are adding to the logistical challenges. The potential for further backlogs and diversions to US ports like Seattle-Tacoma could exacerbate delays and congestion in the coming months, placing additional strain on shipping equipment availability.

The evolving dynamics are also making an impact on Asia-Europe shipping lanes, where rates have risen by approximately 20% since September, according to Maersk. This increase is driven by a post-seasonal demand rebound, congestion at the Port of Hamburg, adverse weather delays at Rotterdam, and an uptick in blanked sailings—all of which have contributed to higher prices.

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