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Global crude oil benchmarks advanced around 1% on Monday, supported by mounting concerns that intensifying airstrikes between Russia and Ukraine could disrupt supply flows, while a softer US dollar added further impetus.

Brent rose by 67 cents, or 1%, to $68.15 a barrel. 

WTI gained 67 cents, or 1.1%, to $64.68 as of 2:15 p.m. US Eastern Time, though there was no official settlement due to the US Labor Day holiday. Trading volumes were muted in both contracts due to the holiday.

Russian crude shipments slipped to a four-week low of 2.72 million barrels per day last week, according to tanker-tracking data, exacerbating supply concerns from one of the world’s largest exporters. The decline coincided with stepped-up Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries over the weekend, underscoring the vulnerability of regional infrastructure.

Attention now turns to US employment data later this week, a key barometer of economic momentum. A softer labour market reading could reinforce expectations of imminent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, potentially boosting oil demand.

Analysts caution, however, that seasonal demand weakness in the fourth quarter of 2025 and into early 2026 could tip the market into surplus. The scale of any inventory builds will hinge in part on China’s stockpiling strategy, after Beijing’s diversion of excess barrels into strategic reserves earlier this year helped temper OECD inventory accumulation.

Written: Farid Muzaffar