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Spot container rates diverged sharply last week, with transpacific routes recording significant gains while Asia–Europe lanes weakened further, according to the latest Freightos data.

Rates on the Asia–US corridor rebounded by more than 20%—roughly $400–$500/FEU—driven by September general rate increases (GRIs) and tighter vessel availability. Early-week trading suggests West Coast momentum is holding. Even so, current levels remain just a third of where they stood a year ago. Analysts caution that gains may prove fragile, as overall US-bound container demand trends downward, though Golden Week restocking and capacity reductions via blank sailings could lend temporary support.

Meanwhile, regulatory headwinds are building. Starting 14 October 2025, US port call fees will apply to Chinese carriers and China-built vessels. Operators are already recalibrating networks to limit exposure, with Chinese firms facing the steepest adjustments. The ultimate impact on US-bound flows and freight rates remains uncertain.

Globally, demand continues to expand despite transpacific softness. Container bookings grew 5% year on year in July, with Asia–Europe volumes climbing 10%. Yet rates on this trade are under pressure: Asia–Europe spot prices slid 11% last week to $2,540/FEU, extending a 25% drop over the past month and a 67% plunge compared to last year. Even July’s seasonal highs—buoyed by stronger volumes than 2024—remained 60% below 2023 peaks, largely due to capacity growth outpacing demand.

As the tariff landscape is beginning to firm up, the US government is encountering stumbling blocks in enacting earlier announced agreements. The US and South Korea are trying to bridge a gap regarding investment commitments. European Union members pushing back against US metal duties projected to exceed 15%. A late-week executive order eased tensions by exempting certain metals and other items, sparking optimism that broader exemptions could pave the way for finalised agreements.

Written: Farid Muzaffar