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Transpacific and Asia–Europe freight rates strengthened last week, supported by mid-month general rate increases (GRIs) and tighter capacity management, even as trade tensions between the US and China intensified.

Transpacific prices to the US West Coast jumped 18% from year-to-date lows to $1,687/FEU, with daily spot rates exceeding $2,000/FEU so far this week. East Coast levels rose 2% to $3,071/FEU, with current daily averages above $3,350/FEU. The rebound follows months of pressure on carriers amid softening US import demand and an early seasonal slowdown, suggesting that rate gains are likely driven more by capacity adjustments than genuine volume growth.

On the Asia–Europe corridor, prices increased 13% to $1,975/FEU, while Mediterranean rates edged up 1% to $2,147/FEU. October GRIs and lingering port congestion — particularly from last week’s labour disruptions in Rotterdam and Antwerp — provided some temporary support. With both disputes now resolved or paused, the rate uptick may prove short-lived.

In geopolitics, the week saw renewed escalation in the US–China trade conflict. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Vice Premier He Lifeng are set to meet in Malaysia amid rising tensions and ahead of a Trump–Xi summit scheduled for later this month in South Korea. Beijing recently expanded export controls on rare earth metals, while Washington threatened 100% tariffs on all Chinese goods effective 1 November.

Additional measures are reshaping global trade flows. The US has introduced new tariffs of 10–25% on heavy trucks and parts, alongside expanded tariff offsets for automakers. A potential trade deal with India could see US tariffs on Indian exports reduced from 50% to 15%, partially offsetting supply risks from China.

Operationally, port call fees imposed by both Washington and Beijing have started to take effect, though disruptions remain limited. Only one China-built vessel was scheduled to arrive at the Port of Los Angeles this week, while a US-flagged container ship reportedly paid $1.7 million in docking fees at Shanghai under China’s reciprocal measures. Carriers are adjusting fleet deployment to minimise exposure to these surcharges, similar to earlier transpacific adjustments.

Despite frontloading earlier this year under the 145% tariff regime, the market is bracing for another potential dip in China–US volumes should 100% tariffs begin in November. However, given the seasonal slowdown and reduced shipping activity in November, the decline is expected to be less severe than the April–May contraction.

Overall, the recent rebound has lifted rates back to September levels, though the sustainability of these gains remains uncertain. With weak demand fundamentals and additional GRIs planned for November, carriers face a challenging balance between maintaining price discipline and preserving service reliability.

Written: Aiman Haikal