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Oil prices ended Tuesday little changed, as a renewed geopolitical risk premium offset mounting concerns over a looming global supply surplus. After rallying by around 2% in the previous session, benchmarks stabilised as traders reassessed fading prospects for a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire alongside rising tensions in the Middle East.

Brent crude futures for February delivery settled down 2 cents, or 0.03%, at $61.92 a barrel. 

WTI crude eased 13 cents, or 0.22%, to $57.95 a barrel.

The market’s consolidation reflects a sharp recalibration of expectations: optimism over a near-term Russia–Ukraine peace deal has stalled, reintroducing a conflict premium that keeps prices trapped in a narrow range. The anticipated bearish inflection from a ceasefire — which some participants had begun to price in for 2026 — has been pushed further out.

Supply-side risks were reinforced by an unusual public divergence between Saudi Arabia and the UAE over Yemen. Saudi-led airstrikes on the port of Mukalla, reportedly aimed at weapons flows to southern separatists, prompted Riyadh to label its national security a “red line”, while Abu Dhabi’s subsequent decision to end its counter-terrorism mission added to regional uncertainty. Together with ongoing disruptions — including the suspension of CPC Blend exports and continued US restrictions on Venezuelan crude — these factors provided downside protection. However, upside momentum remains constrained by structural oversupply concerns, leaving the market anchored in a fragile equilibrium.

Written by: Aiman Haikal