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Global crude futures advanced on Monday, with Brent poised for its steepest monthly gain on record after Yemeni Houthis launched direct strikes on Israel.

Brent settled up $0.21, or 0.2%, at $112.78/b, while US WTI jumped $3.24, or 3.3%, to $102.88/b, surpassing the $100 threshold for the first time since July 2022.

Geopolitical risk has dominated market sentiment this month, driving Brent up 57%—exceeding even the 1990 Gulf War surge. The gains are underpinned by Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, elevating the premium for potential supply disruptions. Traders are increasingly focused on immediate threats from Houthi forces, sidelining US President Donald Trump’s extended 6 April deadline for possible strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure.

Analysts warn that any disruption to the Red Sea, which handles around 15% of global maritime traffic, could instantly add $5–10/b to crude prices. The region’s vulnerability has heightened risk premiums, with market participants closely monitoring chokepoints beyond the Persian Gulf that could compound supply tightness.

Saudi Arabia has rerouted 4.7 million bpd of crude through Yanbu as regional infrastructure remains vulnerable after strikes on Salalah and near Saudi borders. Combined with a projected 1.3 million-barrel drawdown in US inventories, these disruptions reinforce a structurally tight market, supporting further upside for Brent and WTI.

Written by: Aiman Haikal