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Global crude futures split sharply on Tuesday, with front-month Brent surging to record monthly highs while US WTI pulled back.

Immediate physical tightness drove Brent up $5.57, or 4.94%, to $118.35 a barrel, extending its historic 64% monthly gain. On the contrary, WTI fell $1.50, or 1.46%, to $101.38 a barrel, retaining a 52% jump for March.

The Brent rally was underpinned by a historic collapse in OPEC output and repeated attacks on Western Asian energy infrastructures. OPEC’s March production fell 7.3 million bpd month-on-month to 21.6 million bpd, reflecting forced export cuts that have tightened the physical market. A recent Iranian strike on a fully loaded Kuwait Petroleum tanker in Dubai further underscored the region’s fragility.

Conversely, WTI faced downward pressure from a combination of domestic and geopolitical factors. Reports of potential Iranian negotiations, coupled with a 10.3-million-barrel surge in US commercial crude inventories and drawdowns in gasoline and distillates, weighed on the benchmark.

Market participants remain wary, with US defence officials signalling possible intense escalation if talks fail, while diplomatic uncertainty limits confidence in short-term supply relief.

Written by: Aiman Haikal