CommoPlast Article

Route	Cost (USD/FEU)	Changes
*Updated on 31 March 2026*
Asia – US West Coast	$ 2,205	á 4%
Asia – US East Coast	$ 3,224	á 3%
Asia – Northern Europe	$ 2,870	-
Asia – Mediterranean	$ 3,922	â8%

Ocean freight markets show a deep disconnect between Middle East instability and global pricing inertia. While sporadic maritime access to the Persian Gulf has resumed under strict conditions, alternative transit infrastructure is buckling. Despite these crises and mounting carrier fuel costs, global spot rates remain constrained by the traditional slow season. Carrier surcharge campaigns are primarily preventing rate drops rather than driving market increases.

Hormuz transit remains restricted, though an irregular framework is emerging. Iran permitted passage for select vessels, evidenced by the release of two COSCO ships stranded since late February. COSCO has concurrently resumed Gulf bookings. However, adjacent waters remain volatile. A weekend drone strike on Oman's Salalah port temporarily suspended terminal operations, highlighting the vulnerability of alternative routes.

Overland bypass corridors are inadequate. Cargo routed through alternative ports faces cascading delays from vessel bunching, truck shortages, and border friction. These landbridges are serving as emergency stopgaps, not viable alternatives for normal Gulf volumes.

The global container network remains operationally insulated, though fuel costs are accelerating. Rising oil prices are inflating carrier expenses by an estimated $40-$50 million weekly. In response, shipping lines activated emergency fuel surcharges of $300-$500/FEU, alongside April General Rate Increases (GRIs).

Market absorption of these premiums is weak. Spot rates on major east-west corridors remain thousands below announced GRIs. Transpacific rates saw only single-digit gains. Asia to Northern Europe pricing remained flat, whilst Asia to Mediterranean rates contracted 8%. With high capacity in a low-demand period, carrier pricing actions are merely establishing a floor against seasonal declines rather than imposing structural hikes.

Trade policy tensions are resurfacing. Ahead of a May bilateral summit, China initiated probes into US trade practices, mirroring recent US Section 301 investigations. This escalation introduces fresh transpacific forecasting volatility, compounded by ongoing market confusion regarding the processing of International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) tariff refunds.

Freightos Baltic: Surcharges establish rate floors as Gulf workarounds face mounting strain