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Global crude benchmarks recorded marginal gains on Wednesday as softer-than-expected US inventory draws countered intensifying military exchanges in the Middle East.

The international Brent contract ticked up 22 cents (0.26%) to settle at $84.95 a barrel, while US WTI added 26 cents (0.33%) to close at $79.60.

Upward price momentum was significantly capped by weekly data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), which reported a 1.7-million-barrel contraction in domestic crude inventories—falling short of the projected 2.6-million-barrel draw. Further dampening the bullish momentum, US distillate stocks swelled by 4.6 million barrels, starkly contrasting the consensus forecast of a nominal 100,000-barrel increase, signaling localized product stabilization.

However, structural supply risks provided a firm price floor. The enforcement of the US naval blockade continues to choke Iranian crude volumes, contributing to a sharp contraction in total Gulf exports, which investment bank data estimates have fallen below 50% of pre-war capacity to approximately 11 million barrels per day (bpd).

Geopolitical anxiety remains acute following tit-for-tat missile strikes between Washington and Tehran targeting strategic maritime infrastructure, alongside mounting intelligence indicators that regional proxy forces may expand disruptions to the Bab el-Mandeb gateway, threatening to push Brent past $110 in the fourth quarter.

Written by: Aiman Haikal