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Morning Briefing - 21 October 2024Amid a recent uptick in buying activity in China, overseas PE suppliers are signaling plans to raise November shipment offers to the Southeast Asian market. A Saudi Arabian producer indicated intentions to increase offers for LLDPE film by $30-40/ton compared to the previous month. |
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CommoPlast
Morning Briefing
21 October 2024
Brent: $73.06 (- $1.39)
WTI: $69.22 (- $1.45)
Naphtha CFR Japan: - $4
Ethylene CFR NEA: Stable
Ethylene CFR SEA: Stable
Propylene FOB Korea: Stable
Propylene CFR China: Stable
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Amid a recent uptick in buying activity in China, overseas PE suppliers are signaling plans to raise November shipment offers to the Southeast Asian market. A Saudi Arabian producer indicated intentions to increase offers for LLDPE film by $30-40/ton compared to the previous month. However, the producer expressed a more cautious outlook for HDPE film, reflecting uncertainties in demand.
Despite these bullish moves, regional buyers remain wary, closely monitoring demand trends in China and geopolitical risks in the Middle East, both of which are crucial to sustaining any meaningful price uptrend. Many buyers have already secured sufficient stockpiles, and a significant portion are expected to scale back new purchases should the anticipated price increases materialize.
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After reaching multi-year highs earlier this month, the Chinese LDPE film market has begun to lose momentum. An improving domestic supply outlook has eased concerns about reduced overseas availability, particularly from key suppliers like Iran. Spot LDPE film prices have dropped by CNY 250/ton ($35/ton) compared to the previous week. However, buyers have shown limited interest in purchasing additional cargoes.
At least two newly constructed LDPE plants in China are expected to commence operations between late October and November, adding an estimated 450,000 tons of annual production capacity to the market. Furthermore, two existing EVA/LDPE units, with a combined capacity of 450,000 tons per year, are slated to switch to LDPE production within the week. This influx of supply is likely to further weigh on prices, potentially dampening the bullish sentiment that has characterized the market in recent months.
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