Morning Briefing - 23 October 2024

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The Chinese PET bottle market experienced an intensified price correction this week, with export offers declining by an additional $35-40/ton compared to the previous week. This drop has brought export prices back near pre-holiday levels, undoing earlier gains. At the beginning of the month, export PET bottle prices from China had crossed the $900/ton mark, driven by optimism surrounding anticipated government efforts to bolster the economy. However, as the impact of these stimulus measures fades, the market has entered a rapid downward spiral.

Nevertheless, Chinese suppliers are attempting to keep prices above a critical $800/ton threshold FOB China. While a recent uptick in futures contracts for PTA and PX has offered some glimmer of hope for a potential price rebound, concerns remain. The approaching seasonal winter slowdown adds to the uncertainty, raising doubts about the sustainability of any short-term recovery.

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A major Taiwanese PVC producer has maintained its November shipment offers to Asia at the same level as the previous month, despite earlier expectations of $20-30/ton reductions due to weak demand and comfortable supply from China. Market responses were muted, as many buyers, particularly in India, had already built up sufficient inventories, reducing the need to restock despite the typically strong demand period following the monsoon. Furthermore, sources noted that Chinese PVC continues to be offered at competitive prices in India, further discouraging buyers from accepting higher-priced shipments.

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