CommoPlast

Morning Briefing - 17 Jan. 2025

At least three Saudi Arabian producers have reported severe technical challenges at their LLDPE plants over the past week, resulting in notable reductions in February allocations to Asia. While fresh price lists from these producers for Vietnam reflect a stable trend or a modest increase of $10-20/ton compared to the previous month,


CommoPlast

Morning Briefing

 

17 January 2025

Brent: $81.29 (- $0.74)        

WTI: $78.68 (- $1.36)

 

Naphtha CFR Japan: + $2

 

Ethylene CFR NEA: Stable

Ethylene CFR SEA: Stable

 

Propylene FOB Korea: Stable

Propylene CFR China: Stable

 

*Data represent closing prices of the previous trading day 

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At least three Saudi Arabian producers have reported severe technical challenges at their LLDPE plants over the past week, resulting in notable reductions in February allocations to Asia. While fresh price lists from these producers for Vietnam reflect a stable trend or a modest increase of $10-20/ton compared to the previous month, producers have shown no willingness to entertain negotiations.

CommoPlast has yet to independently verify the extent of these production disruptions, but reports from market participants suggest that no definitive restart timelines have been disclosed. Buyers in Vietnam are closely tracking the situation, assessing potential ramifications on the near-term market. However, the steep decline in demand within the Chinese market could act as a counterbalance, limiting the scope for any significant price surges.

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The Chinese PVC market exhibited signs of recovery this week, with spot offers for both ethylene-based and carbide-based PVC increasing by CNY 50-100/ton. This rebound is underpinned by easing inventory pressure and a surge in the energy complex.

Data indicates that PVC stockpiles at major warehouses in Eastern and Southern China have declined for seven consecutive weeks, driven by heightened buying interest at previously suppressed price levels, both domestically and internationally.

Market observers believe the Chinese PVC market may have moved past its lowest point, with attention now focused on the Indian government’s forthcoming decision on anti-dumping duties. A finalized duty structure could boost confidence among Indian buyers, enabling more strategic purchasing and potentially spurring greater market activity.

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