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Morning Briefing - 10 Mar. 2026A violent surge in Asian monomer costs is colliding with a defensive retreat in the Indonesian distribution market, as record-high feedstock inflation forces converters into a premature holiday lull. |
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CommoPlast
Morning Briefing
10 March 2026
Brent: $98.96 (+ $6.27)
WTI: $94.77 (+ $3.87)
Naphtha CFR Japan: + $215
Ethylene CFR NEA: + $80
Ethylene CFR SEA: + $70
Propylene FOB Korea: + $230
Propylene CFR China: + $230
*Data represent closing prices of the previous trading day
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Indonesian market turns defensive as price spike forces early holiday lull
Indonesian market has carried forward last week’s defensive stance, with cargoes now largely available only at the upper limit of the price range. In the absence of fresh producer guidance following the force majeure declaration by Chandra Asri Petrochemical, distributors have taken the lead in price formation, lifting offers sharply as geopolitical tensions linked to the US–Israel–Iran conflict continue to cloud feedstock visibility and disrupt flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
However, the pace of the rally has quickly dampened buying appetite. With prices rising faster than downstream margins can absorb, many Indonesian converters have effectively shifted into early holiday mode ahead of Hari Raya Aidilfitri, stepping back from procurement rather than chasing sharply higher offers.
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Asian monomers feeds through the supply chain
Asian monomer markets are rapidly repricing as the geopolitically driven oil rally cascades through the petrochemical chain, sharply inflating feedstock costs. Naphtha CFR Japan has surged nearly 65% over the past three weeks, propylene CFR China has climbed 38% in two weeks, while ethylene CFR Northeast Asia has advanced 36% across six weeks. The scale and speed of these gains highlight the intensity of upstream cost pressure now feeding through the chemical complex.
For downstream sectors, the challenge is not only higher costs but the pace of the increase. Rapid feedstock inflation is compressing margins across the polymer chain and complicating procurement decisions, as buyers struggle to determine whether current prices reflect a short-lived spike or the start of a broader cost reset.
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