Freightos: Weekly Ocean Freight Index Update

Over the past week, global shipping costs remained relatively stable, fluctuating within a narrow range, except for the Asia-Mediterranean route. However, industry experts anticipate an upward trend in December, driven by frontloading activities and the pre-Lunar New Year shipping rush.

The Freightos Baltic Index, dated 27 November 2024, reported the following week-on-week changes in booking rates:

Key takeaways: 

Freight rates on transpacific shipping routes have defied expectations of a seasonal dip in late November, holding steady above $5,000/FEU since mid-October. This resilience comes despite the traditional slowdown in shipping activity during this period.

Industry experts attribute the sustained strength to several factors. Chief among them is anticipatory "frontloading" of shipments ahead of a potential strike at US East Coast and Gulf ports after January 15. Concerns over tariff hikes expected under the Trump administration next year have also prompted shippers to accelerate cargo movement.

Congestion at major US ports, including Los Angeles and Long Beach, has remained manageable even as volumes surged in recent months. However, in Canada, labour lockouts on both coasts have created significant backlogs that could take weeks to resolve.

On the Asia-Europe trade lane, freight rates have soared by 30% following November’s General Rate Increases (GRIs). Prices on the Asia-Mediterranean route have also seen a notable 11% rise this week, driven by rebounding demand linked to an early start to pre-Lunar New Year shipping activity.

There are growing expectations that shipping liners might attempt to introduce another GRI in December that possibly push rates beyond $6,000/FEU amid measures such as blanked sailings and the accelerated Lunar New Year schedule. Some carriers are cautioning shippers about impending rate hikes in 2025, citing the introduction of stricter EU emissions regulations.

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