Freightos: Weekly Ocean Freight Index Update

The global shipping market tracked a diverged trend over the past week, with transpacific routes experiencing a 16-20% reduction while Asia-European routes surged to the levels last seen in January 2024. 

The Freightos Baltic Index, dated 12 December 2024, reported the following week-on-week changes in booking rates:

Key takeaways: 

Ocean freight rates from Asia to Europe and the Mediterranean have witnessed a substantial surge, with prices climbing to $5,300 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU). This marks a return to pricing levels last seen in the run-up to the previous Lunar New Year in January 2024. The increase underscores a pressing demand for shipping capacity as shippers race to move inventory out of Asia ahead of the traditional Lunar New Year holiday slowdown.

In contrast, the transpacific market is charting a different course. Carrier demand is anticipated to build at a slower pace, with shipping lines planning rate increases ranging from $1,000 to $3,000/FEU closer to the Lunar New Year period.

Revised projections from the National Retail Federation (NRF) offer further insight into these developments. Ocean imports to the United States in the fourth quarter of 2024 are now expected to be 11% higher than initially estimated, representing an additional 640,000 TEUs. These volumes reflect the market's responsive strategy to emerging political and trade uncertainties. The NRF also predicts that import volumes through April 2025 will be 7% higher than in the same period in 2024, signaling a continuation of proactive frontloading strategies aimed at hedging against potential tariff changes.

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