Freightos: Weekly Ocean Freight Index Update

Global freight is bracing for major possible early-2025 disruptions, which could alter the short-term market dynamics. Market participants have referred to new aggressive foreign policies which the recently elected US administration has threatened to impose, pre-Lunar New Year preparations and the prospect of further ILA strikes as driving potential shifts.

The Freightos Baltic Index reported the following week-on-week changes in booking rates:

Key takeaways: 

Freight rates on the transpacific route have risen sharply by 15% since the start of the month, a surge industry insiders attribute to accelerated shipments to the United States ahead of anticipated import tariffs. This rush to stockpile goods may have been further fuelled by recent remarks from the president-elect, hinting at potential geopolitical tensions involving the Panama Canal.

The surge in demand has sparked expectations of a stronger freight market as 2025 approaches. Analysts project General Rate Increases (GRIs) could range from $1,000 to $3,000/FEU in early 2025. Adding to this optimism, the seasonal spike in demand driven by pre-Lunar New Year preparations in January is likely to bolster freight rates further.

In contrast, transatlantic freight rates have remained stable since mid-October. However, this stability may be tested in January, as carriers implement disruption surcharges in anticipation of a possible strike by International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) port workers. Looking ahead to February, the scheduled alliance reshuffle is expected to introduce additional uncertainties.

MSC has announced a disruption surcharge of $2,000 per FEU for transatlantic containers, effective January 18, signalling that carriers are preparing for significant market turbulence in the months ahead.

Read more on Freightos