Freightos Baltic: Freight rates extended downtrend on holiday slump

Global shipping rates continued to decline for the second consecutive week as manufacturing and logistics activity slowed due to the Lunar New Year holiday. Transpacific freight rates to the US West Coast dropped 17% since mid-January, while Asia-Europe rates plunged 25% in recent weeks. Despite these declines, rates remain more than twice their pre-pandemic levels as Red Sea diversions continue to limit available shipping capacity.

Although the six-week phase-one ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has entered its second week, and Houthi attacks on passing vessels have temporarily ceased, major carriers remain hesitant to resume Red Sea transits. With few exceptions, most shipping lines are expected to maintain their rerouted strategies until long-term regional stability is assured.

Meanwhile, expectations of tariff increases under the new US administration have prompted anticipatory frontloading of cargo. This surge in shipments is likely to keep ocean volumes and rates elevated throughout Q1 and potentially into Q2, depending on the timing and extent of the tariff changes.

In parallel, Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk Gemini Cooperation will introduce a hub-and-spoke operational model, which the carriers claim will achieve 90% schedule reliability for shippers. This alliance, along with other impending carrier realignments, is expected to reshape global maritime logistics in the coming months.

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