Oil prices declined on bearish supply-demand forecasts and geopolitical uncertainties

Oil prices declined on Thursday as markets weighed forecasts for the year’s supply-demand balance against broader geopolitical uncertainties. Trade tensions and economic headwinds signalled the potential for supply to outpace demand.

 Brent crude lost $1.07, or 1.5%, to $69.88 a barrel.

WTI dropped $1.13, or 1.7%, to $66.55 a barrel.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) projected a global oil surplus of 600,000 barrels per day in 2025, revising its demand growth estimate downward by 70,000 bpd to just 1.03 million bpd. The downgrade reflects a deteriorating macroeconomic outlook, exacerbated by escalating trade disputes 

Meanwhile, OPEC+ crude output surged by an estimated 363,000 bpd in February, reaching 41.01 million bpd—more than twice the scheduled 138,000 bpd production increase set for April. The sharp rise, driven primarily by Kazakhstan, highlights the group's ongoing struggle to enforce production curbs among its members.

Meanwhile, investors remained watchful over a potential Russia–Ukraine ceasefire following indications from Moscow regarding its conditions for a peace agreement. This introduced uncertainties surrounding potential adjustments to US sanctions on Russian exports, adding a layer of uncertainty regarding the international oil supply outlook.

Written by: Derek Yong