Freightos Baltic: Fierce competition and policy uncertainty keep ocean freight under pressure

Global freight rates extended their decline, weighed down by structural shifts in carrier alliances and uncertainty ahead of key US policy deadlines.

On Asia–Europe lanes, shipping volumes remained subdued following the pre-Lunar New Year rush, dragging rates on Asia–North Europe routes to levels 20% below 2024 lows. Analysts noted the absence of pre-tariff frontloading on these routes, further limiting demand support.

Meanwhile, increased competition remained a focal pressure on the market, driven by subdued capacity regulation after key transporters withdrew from THE Alliance and 2M. The fracture of service networks constrained shippers’ ability to regulate overcapacities stemming from fleet expansions initiated in 2023.

Adding pressure to sentiments, market participants remained wary of further weakness in US-bound shipments, with the possibility of reciprocal tariff measures looming as early as 2 April. Rates to the US’s east and west coasts had already declined for ten consecutive weeks, reflecting whopping 54% and 45% declines over the period.

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