Crude oil jumped nearly 3% as Israel-Iran tensions intensify

Global crude oil benchmarks surged on Thursday, propelled by mounting geopolitical risks in the Middle East that reignited concerns over potential supply disruptions. The gains underscored the market’s heightened sensitivity to regional conflict, particularly as uncertainty looms over possible US involvement.

Brent futures settled $2.15 higher, or 2.8%, at $78.85 a barrel—marking the highest close since 22 January.

WTI was closed for a federal holiday.

The rally came as Israel and Iran entered the second week of sustained aerial hostilities, with no sign of de-escalation. Tehran issued a pointed warning against foreign interference, while the White House said it would decide within two weeks whether to respond militarily—leaving traders bracing for a broader conflict.

Market analysts flagged the potential for severe disruption should tensions spill into the Strait of Hormuz—a key maritime artery through which 18–21 million barrels per day of crude and refined products flow. Iran, OPEC’s third-largest producer at approximately 3.3 million bpd, holds strategic leverage over this chokepoint, amplifying fears of a supply shock if hostilities escalate further.

-end-