Oil jumped over 2% as market grappled with tighter supply, sanctions risk
The rally was driven by a confluence of supportive signals, including a tighter-than-expected supply outlook from the International Energy Agency (IEA), declining US rig counts, and looming threats of further sanctions on Russian energy.
Crude oil prices surged on Friday, 11 July 2025, with both international benchmarks posting strong gains as investors recalibrated their outlook amid tightening market fundamentals and rising geopolitical tensions.
Brent crude futures rose $1.72, or 2.5%, to settle at $70.36 a barrel.
WTI gained $1.88, or 2.8%, to close at $68.45 a barrel.
The rally was driven by a confluence of supportive signals, including a tighter-than-expected supply outlook from the International Energy Agency (IEA), declining US rig counts, and looming threats of further sanctions on Russian energy.
In its latest update, the IEA warned that global oil supply may be more constrained than current data suggests, citing robust summer demand from refineries ramping up production to meet peak travel and power generation needs.
Meanwhile, US drilling activity continued to shrink, with energy services firm Baker Hughes reporting that oil and gas rig counts fell for an 11th consecutive week — the longest losing streak since July 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic severely curtailed fuel consumption.
Geopolitics added another layer of uncertainty. Market participants remained on high alert as the US threatened to impose punitive 500% tariffs on China and India should they continue purchasing Russian energy. Such a move could further isolate Russia’s oil and gas sector and disrupt global trade flows, exacerbating concerns about supply security.
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