Freightos Baltic: Global ocean freight rates slide as tariff uncertainty weighs on peak season demand

Global ocean freight rates continued their downward trajectory, with the trans-Pacific routes bearing the brunt of the decline as demand softened and uncertainty escalated ahead of a key tariff deadline in early August.

Despite persistent disruptions in the Suez Canal, the traditional peak shipping season has failed to materialise, exerting further downward pressure on spot prices. The Asia–US West Coast route recorded the sharpest decline last week, plunging 24% to $2,369/FEU. Rates to the US East Coast slipped 5% to $4,888/FEU, while the Asia–Mediterranean corridor fell 4% to $3,802/FEU. In contrast, the Asia–Northern Europe trade lane defied the broader trend, inching up 4% to $3,509/FEU.

The slowdown coincides with a wave of capacity cuts as carriers scramble to stabilise freight levels. According to Sea-Intelligence, scheduled capacity on the Asia–North America West Coast route was reduced by 23% in June, reflecting a sharp decline in front-loading activity for Chinese exports. A similar adjustment has taken place on the East Coast route, where capacity has dropped by as much as 24% since early June.

Industry participants attribute the tepid shipping activity to importers’ hesitancy in the face of escalating trade tensions. With the US mulling penalties on Chinese vessels and broader tariff negotiations in flux, many buyers are pausing shipments until a clearer picture emerges.

“July is usually the height of the peak season, but that’s clearly not the case this year,” said one freight forwarder. “We’re effectively in a holding pattern until there’s clarity on the tariff front.”

The industry’s attention is now firmly fixed on the outcome of the tariff talks through July and August. The results could significantly reshape trade routes, freight dynamics, and buyer sentiment heading into the critical fourth quarter.

Read more on Freightos