Freightos Baltic: Spot container rates steady yet tariff ruling adds uncertainty

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Spot container rates on major transpacific routes held largely stable last week, with only minor declines, though carriers managed to push through $400–$500 increases on both coasts at the start of this week.

Freightos data showed Asia–US West Coast rates eased 1% to $1,725/FEU, while East Coast prices slipped 1% to $2,708. Asia–Mediterranean benchmarks also fell 2% to $3,003. Carriers’ attempts to implement September general rate increases (GRIs) beyond the $400-500 increase have faced headwinds from muted demand and persistent overcapacity, though more blanked sailings are being scheduled ahead of China’s Golden Week holidays.

Even if GRIs gain traction, current levels remain far below last year’s West Coast peak of $7,000–$8,000/FEU. Rates are also weaker year-on-year despite ongoing Red Sea diversions, underlining the downward pressure from excess capacity.

In policy developments, a US federal appeals court last week upheld an earlier ruling that Washington’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs was unlawful. The tariffs, targeting imports from Canada, Mexico and China, as well as a broader set of reciprocal duties announced in April, will remain in effect while the administration considers an appeal to the Supreme Court by the October 14 deadline. A final decision may not arrive until well into 2026, but if the ruling is upheld, payments already collected could be refunded.

Still, the broader tariff framework is unlikely to ease. The administration has relied on other trade statutes for duties on steel, aluminium, autos and copper, with possible extensions to pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and lumber. Countries without US trade deals are racing to secure exemptions — Mexico faces a November deadline, while India saw 50% duties take effect last week. Others, including Japan and EU members, have agreements in principle but not yet in force, leaving immediate supply chain impacts limited but uncertainty elevated.

Written: Farid Muzaffar