Oil extended loses on OPEC+ supply concerns and Kurdish export resumption

Oil prices retreated on Tuesday as investors weighed the prospect of a supply glut amid signals that OPEC+ may accelerate production increases next month and the imminent return of crude flows from Iraq’s Kurdistan region via Turkey.

Brent for November delivery, which expired on Tuesday, settled 95 cents lower, or 1.4%, at $67.02 a barrel. 

WTI fell $1.08, or 1.7%, to $62.37.

OPEC+ is set to meet this Sunday, with discussions centring on whether to expand November’s supply boost beyond the modest 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) rise agreed for October. Saudi Arabia, the group’s de facto leader, is pushing for a sharper increase to claw back market share, according to three people familiar with the talks. Two of them said that eight member states are considering raising output by between 274,000 and 411,000 bpd — two to three times October’s pace.

Such a move would inject additional barrels into a market already flashing surplus signals. The International Energy Agency projects record oversupply next year, while TotalEnergies SE on Monday forecast a significant glut emerging as early as the first quarter.

Also providing a bearish outlook, US crude production rose to a fresh monthly high of 13.64 million bpd in July, up 109,000 bpd from the previous record in June, data from the Energy Information Administration showed on Tuesday.

Written: Farid Muzaffar