Oil posted steep weekly loss as OPEC+ supply risks weighed on sentiment

Oil prices edged higher on Friday but still registered their sharpest weekly decline in more than three months, as expectations of additional OPEC+ output and the restart of Kurdish exports reinforced concerns of a looming surplus.

Brent crude settled 42 cents firmer, or 0.7%, at $64.53 a barrel. 

WTI gained 40 cents, or 0.7%, to $60.88. Despite the rebound, Brent dropped 8.1% over the week and WTI fell 7.4%.

Attention is now fixed on Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting, where member states are considering larger production increases. Saudi Arabia is pressing for a substantial boost to defend market share, while Russia has advocated a more measured approach, according to people familiar with the talks. The prospect of higher supply comes just as refinery runs slow due to seasonal maintenance, intensifying concerns about oversupply.

The resumption of crude flows from northern Iraq to Turkey after more than two years added to the bearish tone. In the US, government data showed builds across crude, gasoline and distillate inventories last week, underscoring softer demand.

Analysts increasingly warn that the market is tipping into surplus. Some analyst expects a sizeable glut to emerge in the fourth quarter and persist into 2026, while others noted that the long-anticipated oversupply “is now knocking on the market’s door.”

Written: Aiman Haikal