Oil hit seven-week high as situation in Iran continue to stoke supply fears

Oil prices climbed on Monday to their highest levels in about seven weeks, driven by escalating unrest in Iran that raised concerns over potential supply disruptions, even as expectations of renewed exports from Venezuela capped gains.

Brent crude rose $0.53, or 0.8%, to settle at $63.87 a barrel, marking its highest close since 18 November. WTI gained $0.38, or 0.6%, to $59.50, its strongest finish since 5 December.

The rally reflected mounting geopolitical tensions in Iran, where authorities are responding to nationwide protests with a lethal crackdown. The US has warned of potential military action, adding a geopolitical risk premium to crude prices. Data from shipping analysts showed Iran holding record volumes of oil at sea—roughly 50 days of output—as the country seeks to safeguard supplies amid declining Chinese demand.

However, the bullish momentum was tempered by signs that Venezuela is preparing to resume large-scale exports following political changes in Caracas. Washington indicated that up to 50 million barrels of previously sanctioned crude could be sent to the US, with loading expected to begin in the coming week, while global oil traders are reportedly securing tankers for the resumption of operations.

Analysts cautioned that oil prices may face downward pressure through 2026 as new supply enters the market, although extreme volatility is expected to continue due to geopolitical risks in Iran, Russia, and Venezuela. Supply concerns were further reinforced by Azerbaijan’s energy ministry, which reported that oil exports fell to 23.1 million tonnes in 2025 from 24.4 million tonnes the previous year. 

Investors also remain watchful of potential attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and the prospect of tighter US sanctions on Moscow.

Written by: Aiman Haikal