Freightos Baltic: Post-holiday slowdown drags container rates across major east–west trades

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Container freight markets extended their correction this week, with spot demand softening across Asia–Europe and transpacific routes as post-holiday momentum faded. The daily rates to Northern Europe fell to around $2,600/FEU, while Mediterranean services eased to about $3,800/FEU, both well below January peaks of $3,000/FEU and $4,900/FEU.

The transpacific mirrored this trend. Spot levels to the US West Coast dropped 10% last week to near $2,400/FEU, sliding further to around $1,900/FEU by Monday, the lowest since mid-December. East Coast services declined 5% to about $3,850/FEU as booking volumes slowed following front-loaded shipments.

Weather-related disruption added operational noise but did not alter the broader downtrend. Severe winter conditions in North America and Europe temporarily constrained port activity, leaving residual congestion in the US and backlogs at European and Mediterranean terminals. Although operations have largely resumed, forecasts of further adverse weather keep delay risks elevated, particularly in northern Europe.

Structural supply pressure remains the dominant factor. Benchmark freight indices on major East–West trades continue to track well below year-earlier levels as new vessel deliveries outpace cargo growth, reinforcing a persistent capacity surplus. Carriers have previously cited this imbalance, alongside softer volumes from trade-related front-loading, as a key drag on earnings.

Trade policy uncertainty is adding further pressure. US tariffs have weighed on India–US shipments, though negotiators outlined a potential framework to cut duties from 50% to 18% in exchange for concessions, pending formalisation. 

Meanwhile, the US is exploring broader trade measures, prompting other economies to recalibrate ties. Recent EU agreements with India and Mercosur, and the UK’s engagement with China, reflect a wider push to diversify trade exposure amid fluid US policy.

Written by: Farid Muzaffar