Freightos Baltic: Ocean rates slide as holiday lull deepens and consolidation looms

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Container freight markets continued their post-holiday descent this week, with the Freightos Baltic Global benchmark now sitting 44% lower year-on-year—a stark reflection of a market grappling with rapid fleet growth and normalizing demand. 

Transpacific spot rates saw significant corrections as the Lunar New Year (LNY) holiday period officially got underway. Prices to the US East Coast tumbled 12% to approximately $3,000/FEU, erasing gains made during the pre-LNY rush and returning to early December levels. West Coast rates softened a further 2%, extending the slide that began earlier in the month. 

Asia–Europe trade lanes followed a similar downward trajectory. Rates to Northern Europe dipped 5% to roughly $2,400/FEU, while Mediterranean prices fell 4% to $3,600/FEU. Despite the decline, Mediterranean rates remain several hundred dollars above their December baselines, showing slightly more resilience than Northern European routes. 

Carriers are responding to the demand vacuum by blanking a significant number of sailings across major lanes over the holiday period, a move expected to decelerate the rate decline. However, the structural influx of new capacity continues to weigh on carrier revenue, with the impact of a growing global fleet becoming increasingly visible in falling spot levels. 

Weather-related disruptions provided some counter-pressure but failed to arrest the broader slide. Strong winds and high swells in the North Atlantic complicated transits mid-week, adding to existing delays and backlogs at Western Mediterranean and Northern European ports. While operations resumed over the weekend and forecasts look clearer for the coming days, several carriers have introduced disruption surcharges to mitigate operational costs. 

Strategic consolidation took center stage this week with Hapag-Lloyd agreeing to acquire ZIM. If approved by shareholders and regulators late this year, the deal would solidify Hapag-Lloyd’s position as the fifth-largest carrier, pushing its combined capacity past 3 million TEU—closer to the industry’s top four. The acquisition is expected to bolster Hapag-Lloyd’s market share on Far East–North America and Transatlantic lanes, where ZIM currently holds significant volume. 

Trade policy uncertainty remains a critical backdrop. The US administration’s revived Maritime Action Plan has reintroduced the threat of protectionist port fees on foreign-built vessels, which analysts estimate could range from $150/FEU to a prohibitive $3,750/FEU. Meanwhile, shifting trade patterns are emerging as exporters seek alternatives to US markets; carriers are reportedly reallocating capacity to Far East–West Africa lanes to capture growing demand, potentially at the expense of Transatlantic service frequency.

Written by: Aiman Haikal