Freightos Baltic: Hormuz blockade introduces acute operational friction as carriers scramble to divert Middle East volumes

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Global east-west container rates remained largely insulated this week as the ongoing post-Lunar New Year demand lull temporarily masked the severe logistical shockwaves emanating from the Middle East. While baseline indices held steady, geopolitical interference in the Gulf is introducing acute operational friction, threatening to broadly compress available capacity if the conflict continues to stretch on.

On the major trade lanes, pricing action was muted. Asia–US West Coast and East Coast rates were flat week-on-week, holding at approximately $1,800/FEU and $3,000/FEU, respectively. Asia–Europe routes saw slight softening, with Northern Europe slipping 1% to near $2,350/FEU and Mediterranean services easing 2% to roughly $3,600/FEU.

Beneath the stable headline indices, however, regional markets are facing extreme disruption. The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz following strikes on six tanker vessels has severed a critical maritime artery. While DP World’s Jebel Ali port reopened Monday following an interception-related fire, the surrounding security environment has forced major carriers into emergency posture. Hapag-Lloyd, MSC, and CMA-CGM have aggressively suspended bookings to and from Persian Gulf ports, while Maersk has halted all new reefer bookings to the region.

This abrupt transit paralysis is forcing immediate network reconfigurations. Carriers are actively diverting in-transit volumes to major Far East transshipment hubs across Singapore, Malaysia, and Sri Lanka. While current baseline volumes are lower than during the 2024 Red Sea crisis, minimizing immediate congestion risks, the sudden influx of offloaded cargo threatens to create localized backlogs at these Asian origins.

The immediate financial impact is currently isolated to the Gulf. CMA CGM has already implemented a $3,000/FEU emergency surcharge for gulf-bound containers. Consequently, Freightos Terminal spot rates for Shanghai to Jebel Ali spiked from $1,800/FEU to over $4,000/FEU in a matter of days.

Market participants warn that this localized shock carries severe contagion risks for global capacity. With an estimated 100 container vessels currently stranded in the Persian Gulf—representing anywhere from 1% to 10% of global effective capacity—prolonged transit closures will rapidly drain equipment availability out of the Far East.

Adding to the complex operational landscape, the conflict’s ripple effects are reversing recent normalization efforts in the Red Sea. Following renewed threats of Houthi strikes, carriers that had tentatively resumed Red Sea transits have immediately diverted vessels back around the Cape of Good Hope, solidifying extended transit times. Meanwhile, trade policy volatility continues to loom, with President Trump threatening to cut off trade with Spain over military base access, further complicating the geopolitical risk matrix for forward supply chain planning.

Written by: Aiman Haikal