Oil rebounded 5% as escalating maritime attacks eclipse historic IEA reserve release
The IEA's coordinated proposal to release 400 million barrels of strategic reserves was widely dismissed by analysts as fundamentally inadequate.
Brent NYMEX
Oil prices surged nearly 5% on Wednesday, abruptly halting the previous session's selloff as fresh maritime attacks in the Strait of Hormuz overshadowed the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) record emergency stock release proposal.
Brent rose $4.18, or 4.8%, to settle at $91.98 a barrel. US WTI climbed $3.80, or 4.6%, to $87.25, as the market decisively prioritized immediate physical supply destruction over future policy interventions.
The bullish reversal followed confirmed projectile strikes on three additional commercial vessels, bringing the total targeted to 14 since late February. Despite US President Donald Trump’s assertions of military readiness, maritime sources indicate the US Navy is currently denying commercial escort requests due to extreme tactical risks. Consequently, traders aggressively ignored a larger-than-expected build in US crude inventories.
Furthermore, the IEA's coordinated proposal to release 400 million barrels of strategic reserves was widely dismissed by analysts as fundamentally inadequate. Equating to just 16 days of standard Gulf transit volume, the intervention falls short of replacing severed infrastructure, a reality compounded by the emergency drone-strike shutdown of ADNOC’s Ruwais refinery.
Market focus remains locked on severe upstream shut-ins. While Saudi Arabia is actively rerouting exports via the Red Sea, shipping data confirms these flows cannot offset the estimated 15 million barrels per day currently choked off. With structural disruptions expected to persist even in a ceasefire scenario, risk premiums remain heavily skewed upward, with worst-case projections actively eyeing the $150 per barrel threshold.
Written by: Aiman Haikal