Freightos Baltic: Gulf bottlenecks intensify as regulatory pushback challenges carrier surcharges

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Ocean freight markets are increasingly bifurcated, with acute disruption concentrated in the Middle East contrasting sharply against relative stability across major global trade lanes. Although a modest uptick in transits through the Strait of Hormuz has followed recent Iranian concessions, entrenched logistical constraints continue to impede normalised flows.

Carriers have been forced to reroute cargo via secondary transhipment hubs along India’s west coast, supplemented by shuttle services into Oman and the UAE. These alternative corridors, however, lack the structural capacity to absorb diverted volumes, pushing Shanghai–Jebel Ali spot rates above $7,000/FEU. The strain is cascading through regional supply chains, with UAE ports experiencing berthing delays exceeding a week and acute truck shortages leaving inland cargo stranded.

Beyond the Middle East, the broader container market remains largely insulated from disruption. Spot rate movements across key east–west corridors are subdued, reflecting muted post-holiday demand. Transpacific rates edged higher only marginally, with US West Coast pricing rising 3% to $2,100/FEU and East Coast rates gaining 4% to $3,100/FEU. Asia–Europe lanes were flat, underscoring carriers’ limited ability to translate regional geopolitical risk into wider rate increases as the market enters its seasonal lull.

In response to mounting operational costs, carriers are advancing cost-recovery measures, including proposed emergency fuel surcharges of $200–500/FEU across multiple routes and planned General Rate Increases (GRIs) for April. However, implementation faces growing resistance. Shippers have raised concerns over potential double-charging alongside standard Bunker Adjustment Factor (BAF) revisions, prompting closer regulatory scrutiny.

Authorities have begun to push back against pricing actions perceived as excessive. The US Federal Maritime Commission has rejected a carrier request to waive the 30-day notice period for fuel surcharges, citing insufficient cost justification, while Indian regulators have introduced a formal grievance mechanism targeting predatory pricing practices. How carriers navigate these constraints will be critical in the coming weeks, as efforts to restore margins collide with soft demand conditions and heightened regulatory oversight.

Written by: Aiman Haikal