Morning Briefing - 07 Apr. 2025

CommoPlast

Morning Briefing

07 April 2025

Brent: $65.58 (â $4.56)

WTI: $61.99 (â $4.96)

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Oil benchmarks saw a nearly 11% weekly decline on escalated trade war

International crude oil benchmarks posted sharp weekly losses, plunging nearly 11% for the week ending 4 April, as escalating global trade tensions unnerved markets. The sell-off followed the United States’ move to raise baseline tariffs to 10% across all imports, coupled with sweeping reciprocal measures targeting 60 key trading partners.

The tit-for-tat trade actions fuelled investor anxiety and sparked a broad retreat from risk assets, amplifying fears of a potential global economic slowdown.

Adding further pressure, OPEC+ announced plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day starting in May—significantly higher than the initially proposed 135,000 bpd. The supply-side shift only deepened bearish sentiment across energy markets.

Analysts now forecast crude prices could fall back into the mid-to-high $50s per barrel, cautioning that current market dynamics are likely to dent global demand in the coming months.

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Chinese PVC market tracked stable to firmer trend ahead of holiday

The Chinese PVC market maintained a stable to slightly firmer tone in the lead-up to the Tomb Sweeping Festival, as suppliers tested market acceptance following a recent improved fundamental. Spot offers were largely supported by reduced inventory pressure during the ongoing maintenance season, alongside a modest uptick in purchasing activity over the past weeks.

However, market sentiment took a sharp downturn following the US announcement of reciprocal tariffs, casting a shadow over the near-term demand outlook and stoking fears of an intensifying trade conflict.

By the close of the shortened trading week, carbide-based PVC prices had risen by CNY 50/ton, while ethylene-based PVC remained flat.

Looking ahead, market participants are bracing for a potential slowdown in trading once activity resumes after the holiday, with concerns mounting over the broader implications of the escalating trade tensions.

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