Brent rebounded to $73.15 as US-Iran strikes expose ceasefire fragility; 75% Hormuz recovery caps gains

Crude benchmarks registered a corrective Monday bounce, interrupting a severe 10.6% weekly sell-off as renewed geopolitical hostilities exposed the fragility of the US-Iran interim ceasefire.

The international Brent contract climbed $1.16 (1.61%) to settle at $73.15 a barrel, while US WTI advanced $1.52 (2.2%) to $70.75.

The upward momentum was strictly driven by tit-for-tat weekend strikes between Washington and Tehran, injecting immediate risk premium back into the tape ahead of imminent technical implementation talks in Doha.

Price gains were capped by a cautious but sustained recovery in regional shipping. Outbound Persian Gulf crude exports have rapidly rebounded to 75% of pre-war baselines, yet severe physical and bureaucratic bottlenecks persist. Iranian and Omani maritime experts are actively redefining Strait of Hormuz transit corridors, with Tehran explicitly threatening to obstruct any vessels navigating outside these designated areas. Consequently, uncleared naval mines and structural insurance hesitancy continue to throttle a full return to pre-war baseload volumes.

Despite the elevated physical threat, core Middle Eastern producers are aggressively executing cargo loadings. Saudi Aramco successfully sustained crude operations at its Ras Tanura Gulf terminal following a four-month operational freeze. Crucially, these terminal loadings continued uninterrupted through the weekend despite fresh regional vessel attacks and a fatal company helicopter crash at the Ras Tanura facility, signalling an unyielding upstream commitment to clearing stranded regional inventory.

Written by: Aiman Haikal