Oct 29, 2026 2:26 p.m.

EIA: US crude draws swamp forecasts as stocks tightened significantly

The miss was bullish for crude and ran opposite to the previous two weeks, when builds caught the market off guard.

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US commercial crude inventories fell 3.06 million barrels to 412.5 million barrels in the week ended October 16, the EIA said on Wednesday, nearly four times the 820,000 barrel draw analysts had expected. The miss was bullish for crude and ran opposite to the previous two weeks, when builds caught the market off guard.

Crude imports fell 291,000 barrels a day to 5.76 million, but exports dropped much harder, down 1.30 million barrels a day to 3.44 million. That pushed net imports up 837,000 barrels a day to 2.32 million, a bigger call on foreign barrels than the week before.

Domestic production fell 410,000 barrels a day to 12.27 million, a steep weekly move for a series that usually shifts in small increments. The draw came despite a stronger net import position, so refinery intake and other balance items absorbed more crude than the trade data added.

Motor gasoline inventories dropped 2.95 million barrels to 205.3 million barrels, almost seven times the 443,000 barrel draw the market had priced. The size of the miss points to demand or export pull running well ahead of consensus, and it gives gasoline cracks a firmer footing.

 

Written by: Farid Muzaffar