Oct 19, 2026 7:53 a.m.

Oil jumped 4% as US Gulf storm shut-ins and Gulf shipping risks defy political truce

Global crude oil futures surged roughly 4% on Thursday as extensive hurricane shut-ins in the US Gulf of Mexico and record tanker strikes in the Middle East overwhelmed temporary diplomatic overtures.

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Global crude oil futures surged roughly 4% on Thursday as extensive hurricane shut-ins in the US Gulf of Mexico and record tanker strikes in the Middle East overwhelmed temporary diplomatic overtures.

BENCHMARK

SETTLE (US$/BBL)

CHANGE (US$)

CHANGE (%)

TREND

Brent

ICE, active front-month (Dec)

104.28

+4.08

+4.1%

▲ UP

WTI

NYMEX, front-month

91.49

+3.21

+3.6%

▲ UP

Settlement prices for Thursday, 8 October 2026. Change versus previous settlement.

 

BRENT

Cleared $104 on record Hormuz attacks and fresh sanctions

WTI

Reclaimed $91 as Hurricane Isaias shuts 63% of Gulf output

 

Crude rallied more than $5 a barrel intraday before paring gains after US President Donald Trump ruled out military strikes against Tehran ahead of the 3 November midterms. Downside was further capped by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi confirming Tehran is reviewing a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days.

However, physical supply constraints quickly checked the retreat. The US slapped fresh sanctions on 17 vessels moving Iranian oil, while tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz climbed to peak wartime frequency. Heightened shipping threats prompted France and Saudi Arabia to explore joint military protection for the Yanbu terminal, with Syria also weighing security assistance for Riyadh.

In the US, Hurricane Isaias shut in 1.3 million bpd—equivalent to 62.9% of offshore Gulf crude production—forcing platform evacuations across BP, Shell, and Chevron assets. Persistent geopolitical premiums in Europe outpaced domestic storm gains, stretching the transatlantic Brent–WTI spread out to $12.79 a barrel.

Written by: Aiman Haikal