Freightos Baltic: East–West spot rates ease across all lanes as November GRIs fizzle and US–China port fee pause extends

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Global east–west container spot rates retreated across all four primary corridors in the week to 10 November 2026, as cooling post-peak demand blunted 1 November General Rate Increases (GRIs) whilst Washington and Beijing extended their maritime tariff truce.

According to the Freightos Baltic Index (FBX), Asia–Northern Europe led the decline, falling 5% from last week's $3,595/FEU print to $3,422/FEU (roughly $3,400/FEU), whilst Asia–Mediterranean edged down 1% to $4,324/FEU (near $4,300/FEU). Despite carriers abandoning 1 November GRI targets on Europe-bound strings, benchmarks remain 50% higher year-on-year to Northern Europe and up 88% to the Mediterranean.

Across the Pacific, Asia–US East Coast slipped 2% to $9,708/FEU and Asia–US West Coast dipped 1% to $8,245/FEU, holding near peak plateaus of $9,700/FEU and $8,200/FEU even as early-November carrier rate hikes failed to materialise.

The Transpacific pullback tracks a gradual unwinding of this year's unusually prolonged peak season. The latest National Retail Federation US ocean import volume report shows inbound container volumes climbed from May to a near-record peak of 2.37 million TEU in September, before easing an estimated 5% in October and a projected 14% from September's high in November. Full-year 2026 imports are now forecast to grow 2.2% over 2025, reversing earlier expectations of flat volumes. That multi-month surge was sparked by May frontloading ahead of anticipated July duty hikes following the US Supreme Court's February invalidation of IEEPA tariffs, and sustained by stable post-July duties, importer cash windfalls from IEEPA refunds, and resilient consumer spending.

Portside bottlenecks continue to buffer Transpacific rate floors despite cooling arrivals. At Los Angeles and Long Beach, the ILWU Local 26 watchmen union extended its strike deadline to 20 November to continue negotiations with terminal operators. Although most holiday inventory has already berthed, a severe inland rail backlog is delaying container movement off the docks, amplifying disruption risks should talks fail.

On the policy front, the US and China officially extended their pause on reciprocal port call fees until 10 January 2027, aligning with the broader September trade truce ahead of next week's summit between Presidents Trump and Xi in China.

Meanwhile, last week's US midterm shift leaves trade policy at a crossroads: voter inflation pressures could steer the White House toward tariff restraint and Iran war de-escalation to cool oil prices, though domestic legislative gridlock may equally incentivize unilateral executive action on foreign and trade policy.

Written by: Aiman Haikal